Iran ceasefire hangs in balance as Trump signals deal to come ‘relatively quickly’

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Diplomatic efforts to stabilise the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran have intensified, as regional powers step up engagement and global markets react cautiously to renewed tensions.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call on Monday with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, during which both sides discussed the evolving regional conflict.

Lavrov reiterated the importance of upholding the ceasefire and maintaining diplomatic momentum, while Tehran confirmed it was prepared to ensure the uninterrupted passage of Russian ships and cargo through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy supplies.

Markets responded with measured concern. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose by 5.6% to settle at $95.48 per barrel, reflecting heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, US equities dipped slightly, with the S&P 500 closing 0.2% lower.

Attention is now turning to potential talks in Pakistan, where US Vice-President JD Vance is expected to travel on Tuesday at the head of a diplomatic delegation, contingent on Iran agreeing to further negotiations in Islamabad. He is set to be joined by Steve Witkoff, a senior envoy to Donald Trump, and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

However, the prospect of talks remains uncertain. Iran’s president has warned of a “deep historical mistrust” of the United States, underscoring the fragile nature of the diplomatic track.

President Trump, in a post on Truth Social, struck a more optimistic tone, stating that a deal with Iran would be reached “relatively quickly”. He added that the United States would not lift its blockade of Iranian ports until an agreement is secured, expressing confidence that any new nuclear deal would surpass the 2015 international accord aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Tehran has responded with defiance. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected negotiations under pressure

“Trump, by imposing a blockade and violating the ceasefire, seeks, in his view, to turn the negotiating table into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering,” Ghalibaf wrote in a post on X. “We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threat, and over the past 2 weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield.”

Elsewhere in the Gulf, regional actors have continued efforts to de-escalate tensions. Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani, held talks with Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad bin Hamood Albusaidi, focusing on cooperation and the latest developments surrounding the ceasefire.

According to a statement from Qatar’s foreign ministry, discussions included “the ceasefire between the US and Iran, and the efforts being exerted to reduce tension and promote regional peace and security”.

As the ceasefire deadline approaches, the coming days are expected to prove critical in determining whether diplomatic efforts can hold, or whether tensions risk escalating once again.

Source: The Guardian

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