One Nation’s efforts to expand its support base in Western Sydney are likely to face significant structural and demographic challenges ahead of the NSW state election on March 13, according to political analyst Kos Samaras.
Samaras said the party could benefit from stronger support in regional New South Wales, particularly in areas such as the Hunter and Lake Macquarie, following recent electoral gains including its Farrer by-election result.
“They will have a very good day if the current trajectory holds, particularly in regional New South Wales, around the Hunter area and Lake Macquarie,” he said.
However, he said the party’s prospects weaken significantly in metropolitan Sydney, particularly in outer suburban seats targeted by One Nation.
“But as you come into Sydney, the situation for One Nation is a lot more challenging, especially up against the Minns government,” Samaras said.
He said the party was unlikely to make major inroads among younger, university-educated voters and culturally diverse communities in Western Sydney, groups he argued are more inclined to support Labor.
“These individuals, in very significant numbers, will gravitate towards the Minns government and inflate their primary [vote] in key seats,” he said.
Samaras’ assessment aligns with longstanding electoral trends identified by ABC analyst Antony Green, who says One Nation support typically rises with distance from central Sydney.
“The further you get away from [central Sydney], the higher the One Nation vote,” Green said, adding the party performs better outside metropolitan Sydney than within it.
The comments come as One Nation positions itself for a broader contest across NSW, but continues to face questions over its ability to translate regional momentum into meaningful gains in diverse suburban electorates.
Source: ABC.
