Economist Sophie Photios estimates 50 percent chance of recession for 2024

·

Along with other Macquarie economists, Sophie Photios estimates there is a 50 percent chance of recession this year as the “trap” of high migration unwinds and high interest rates leave the private sector in “stagnation”.

According to AFR, Photios claims strong net migration of more than half a million people over the past year had also added to inflation pressure including rents.

Photios also describes the economy as a “masquerade”, where the “surge in immigration” has masked the gap between the economy growing modestly in total but going backwards in per-person terms.

“Population is at the centre of the Australian story as it is working on growth in a ‘positive’ way and on inflation in a ‘negative’ way – and has offset the impact of combined policy tightening,” Photios said in a joint report with colleague Graham McDevitt.

Immigration is shaping as a key electoral battleground – again. Louise Kennerley
Immigration is shaping as a key electoral battleground – again. Photo: Louise Kennerley/AFR.

“Australia’s migration pulse is expected to taper off in 2024, and when this happens, it does not appear that households, business, or trade will be able to fill the growth void”.

The Macquarie report was published last month prior to the federal budget and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s plan to cut migration.

In addition, Photios and McDevitt stress that “If population growth slows, then aggregate growth slows, and if there is no other driver of growth, the economy is at risk of recession.”

Macquarie economists expect an interest rate cut in the second half of 2024 after an “extended RBA pause”, as inflation’s slower economic growth and a moderation will give the central bank space to reduce financial pressure on Australian households.

Source: AFR

greek film festival sydney new

Advertisement

Share:

KEEP UP TO DATE WITH TGH

By subscribing you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Advertisement

Latest News

Kogarah Orthodox Youth donate $3,000 to St George Hospital Paediatric Unit

The Kogarah Orthodox Youth presented a cheque for $3,000 to the Paediatric Unit at St George Hospital in Sydney.

St George Basketball star set to trial with Greek sister club

Jaxon Jon Frintzilas will travel to Greece to become the first St George representative player to visit and trial with Apollon Patras.

Sydney Olympic’s Damon Hanlin yet to lodge bid for Mariners investment, confirms APL

The APL has confirmed Damon Hanlin has not lodged any proposal to invest in the Central Coast Mariners. Read more here.

‘Music unites homeland with abroad’: Areti Ketime speaks ahead of Zeibekiko Festival Australia

Areti Ketime returns to Australia this October for the Zeibekiko Festival, bringing rebetiko, Smyrnaic and traditional songs with her.

Cyprus’ Chief Scientist strengthens research and innovation partnerships in Australia

Cyprus Chief Scientist Demetris Skourides has completed a week of high-level meetings in Australia, strengthening innovation ties.

You May Also Like

Ex-NSW cop Nikki Saroukos hits back at US Homeland Security over deportation ordeal

Nikki Saroukos has slammed US Homeland Security for what she calls “humiliating” treatment during a trip to visit her US Army husband.

Looted 500-year-old Orthodox icon returned to Cyprus

A 500-year-old Orthodox icon that was looted from a church during the Turkish Invasion from the northern part of Cyprus has been returned.

Cultural Diversity Week ends with inaugural Victorian Multicultural Festival 

Victoria’s largest annual Cultural Diversity Week has culminated in the inaugural Victorian Multicultural Festival.